Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 618 PM EDT Thu Aug 04 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 08 2022 - 12Z Fri Aug 12 2022 ...Cold and wet pattern setting up over much of Alaska, especially the North Slope/Interior, with rounds of heavy rainfall possible across the South/Southeast... ...Overview... A deep closed low will drive a cold front across western/central Alaska and into the Gulf, with precipitation including mountain snows become increaisngly likely across the Mainland. This system will usher in a much cooler regime across Alaska lasting into at least the middle of next week. Meanwhile, yet another chance for heavy rainfall develops into southern/southeast Alaska next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF look pretty reasonable and consistent into Monday/Tuesday, but opted to transition to the still compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means by next Thursday/Friday amid growing forecast spread. Forecast predictability slowly lowers from above normal to near normal values during this period. The latets models show moderation of the mainland cold snap later next week, but that scenario will be monitorred as the lead-in pattern shows ample digging of northern stream/Arctic energies that may prove slow to relinquish. Overall, WPC product continuity was decently maintained in this active and unsettled weather pattern. ...Sensible Weather... Much of mainland Alaska looks to remain rather unsettled next week as strong systems dig into region. This likely brings protracted periods with gusty winds as well as widespread precipitation. Some of this precipitation could fall as snow, particularly parts of northwest Alaska and elevated terrain. The heaviest precipitation should shift south and east with time next week, with the potential for heavy rainfall once again returning to parts of south/southeast Alaska and the Panhandle region as low pressure systems focus a plume of long fetch Pacific moisture across the region. For the most part, precipitation over the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula region will be more limited, with more organized activity to approach later next week as a system slides to the south across the northern Pacific. Chilly temperatures will overspread much of Alaska, including the Panhandle by this weekend with daytime highs as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. The highest anomalies will feature across the North Slope region though, where anomalies could be as high as 30+ degrees below normal and morning low near or below freezing for some places. Temperatures may begin to moderate from west to east mid-later next week. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon-Wed, Aug 8-Aug 10. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Thu, Aug 7-Aug 11. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html