Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 624 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 26 2022 - 12Z Tue Aug 30 2022 ...Stormy weather with heavy precipitation/strong winds shift from the Bering Sea and southwest/western Alaska to the Gulf of Alaska and southern/southeast Alaska... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model and ensemble solutions seem reasonably well clustered for at least mid-larger scales through at least next weekend. Gravitated to the still compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means into early next weekday as forecast spread gradually increases. These favored composites tend to blend out embedded smaller scale variance consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal overall predictability. Even so, forecaster manual adjustments were then applied to these blends to ensure deepened surface systems and enhanced winds/QPF considering dynamic upper support. This overall plan maintains very good WPC product continuity as collaborated with local Alaskan NWS forecast offices. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... An active weather pattern for Alaska and vicinity is on tap for this forecast period. There is strong guidance signal indicating that an amplified/energetic upper low/trough and regenerating surface lows/frontal systems will shift ample storm focus from the Bering Sea and southwest/western Alaska Friday into Saturday to the Gulf of Alaska and southern/southeast Alaska by this weekend and persisting through early next week. This will include threats for high winds/waves and heavy rainfall/mountain snows to spread across the broad region. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and southeast Alaska, Sun-Mon, Aug 28-Aug 29. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Aug 25. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html