Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 539 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 28 2022 - 12Z Thu Sep 01 2022 ...Multi-day heavy rainfall threat for Southeast Alaska... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET solutions now seem fairly well clustered and reasonable for at least days 4/5 (Sunday/Monday) and a composite seems to weed out the less predictable smaller scale differences, bolstering forecast confidence. The still compatible and reasonable GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means seem to then provide better run to run consistent solutions into the longer term day 6-8 time frame than the models amid slowly growing forecast spread. This plan maintains good WPC product continuity in an active and amplified pattern. This includes a collaborated and well depicted in guidance weekend to early next week heavy rainfall threat for Southeast Alaska with fueling influence from deep remnant moisture from current west Pacific Typhoon Tokage. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... An active weather pattern for Alaska and vicinity is likely well into next week. There remains a strong guidance signal indicating that an amplified/closed upper low/trough and regenerating surface lows/frontal systems will settle and refocus a main multi-day storm focus over the Gulf of Alaska and into Southeast Alaska Sunday through next midweek. Additional storm energies will meanwhile consolidate well upstream next week over the Bering Sea and work toward western/southwestern Alaska by late period. There is more uncertainty with the complex development of these individual systems, but overall offer a threat for enhanced winds/waves and rainfall. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Weds, Aug 27-Aug 31. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html