Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 703 PM EDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 05 2022 - 12Z Fri Sep 09 2022 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The WPC Alaskan Day 4-8 product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of reaonably well clustered guidance of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian for days 4/5 (Monday/Wednesday) before switching to a blend of the still compatable 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for days 6-8 amid growing forecast spread. This forecast strategy was collaborated with local Alaskan NWS offices. WPC product continuity was reasonably well maintained in this manner in a pattern with near normal overall predictability. Forecaster applied adjustments to these resultant blends tend to mitigate some unwanted embedded system weakening due to the blend process when upper support or continuity seemed to mandate as consistent with predictability. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... Expect ample upper troughing and moisture laden surface system activity over the Gulf of Alaska and south/southeast Alaska over the weekend to quickly lose influence over the region while working inland into western Canada through early next week. The primary emphasis of the forecast will transfer to development and evolution of upper trough energies and embedded lows moving across the Bering Sea along with how it may interact with North Pacific flows/surface system. Expect the Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula/western mainland will subsequently see rain develop into Tuesday-Wednesday dependent on the Bering Sea-North Pacific evolution. Latest progs still bring an organized low/frontal system across the region that could then reorganize over the northern Gulf of Alaska next Wednesday-Friday. This would offer an additional maritime and southern Alaskan threat of enhanced rains/winds/waves, albeit with stronger guidance signals to emerge for this longer time frame. Elsewhere, the overall pattern with lowered heights and passing upper systems should also support some scattered areas of mostly light precipitation over interior portions of the mainland over the period. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards with sufficient predictability are noted during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html