Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 707 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 19 2022 - 12Z Sun Oct 23 2022 ...Major storms offer a heavy precipitation and high wind/wave maritime threat with impact from the Aleutians through South-central/Southeast Alaska next week... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazards Highlights... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions seem well clustered Wednesday into Friday and are well supported by ensembles, bolstering forecast confidence. In this period, low energies into this period will keep the eastern Bering Sea and Western/Southwestern Alaska into the Interior unsettled with some periods of wintry precipitation and some gusty winds. This includes influence from Arctic stream upper trough/low energies lingering over Northwest Alaska. A big story to highlight remains the track a major/deep low with central pressure dropping near 950mb and gale to hurricane force winds into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday in what is proving to be quite an astounding series of storms so far in October in a highly energetic pattern. Forecast spread/uncertainty has significantly decreased with this potent storm, albeit still with an uncertain connection to Twentyone and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) invest area 91W over the west Pacific. The composite depiction of a dangerous system track offers a significant renewed threat of stormy seas/winds, heavy rain/runoff issues and elevation snowfall threats into South-central and Southeast Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday given long fetch moisture connection and potent upper low/trough support. Meanwhile, there is an emerging guidance signal for a large deepened low to flourish and bring widespread high winds/waves across the Bering Sea through the Aleutians into the north Pacific along with wrapping heavy rains in a broader mean circulation Tuesday into next Saturday. The details and embedded low interactions and reformations within the flow remains less certain, lending preference from a composite blend of the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means to mitigate the less predictable forecast conponents. This overall gyre also threatens much of West/Southwest Alaska into the Interior and underneath through a stormy AKpen/Kodiak Island into the Gulf of Alaska and inland with wrapping/frontal inflow into South-central then Southeast Alaska Wednesday into next weekend with downstream potent energy transition and system progression. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html