Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 20 2022 - 12Z Mon Oct 24 2022 ...Southeast Alaska heavy precipitation threat to renew Thursday/Friday... ...Active late week/weekend flow from a Bering Sea low into Western Alaska... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazards Highlights... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model solutions seem well clustered Thursday/Friday and are well supported by ensembles in a pattern with above normal predictability. In this period, low energies will keep the Bering Sea/Aleutians then into Western/Southwestern Alaska and the Interior unsettled with periods of wintry precipitation and some gusty winds/surf. This includes influence from Arctic stream upper trough/low energies lingering over Northwest Alaska. A lingering mean closed low position over the northern Bering Sea will act to hold onto this active pattern across the broad region, but offers a less certain daily embedded weather system focus through next weekend. The compatible and better run to run consistent 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means seem to provide a good forecast starting point for these longer time frames, albeit with less detail consistent with growing uncertainty. Meanwhile, a potent system/front working underneath across the Alaskan Peninsula and Kodiak Island into the Gulf of Alaska will focus a maritime threat along with wrapping/frontal inflow into South-central then Southeast Alaska especially into Thursday/Friday, but also through next weekend with downstream potent energy transition and system progression. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian offer the best clustered system tracks in Thursday/Friday, but offer varied low strengths. WPC progs have trended somewhat on the deeper side of full envelope of solutions given the overall energetic supporting flow pattern. The details and embedded low interactions and reformations within the flow remains less certain by the weekend, lending preference from a composite blend of the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means to mitigate the less predictable forecast components. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html