Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 756 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 23 2022 - 12Z Thu Oct 27 2022 ...A storm threat to Gulf of Alaska/coastal communities this weekend into early next week... ...Active pattern from Bering Sea Lows into Western Alaska through the period... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazards Highlights... The extended period begins with a surface low tracking across the northern portion of the Gulf of Alaska ushering in gusty winds and precipitation to parts of the southern Mainland and the Southeast. There is decent model clustering with this feature with the UKMET/CMC favoring a position closer to the coastline and more northwest than the clustered ECWMF/GFS solutions. However, the ensemble means are favoring positions closer to that of the GFS/ECWMF. After Sunday, the UKMET slows progression and is less amplified than the rest of the guidance so it was not used beyond initialization. A mean trough/upper low in place over the Bering Sea back to northeast Russia through the course of the medium range period will keep much of the West/Southwest in an active and unsettled pattern. There continues to be notable spread with the next low that comes out of the Bering Sea and across the Southwest/western part of the state by the end of the extended period; but consensus is trending toward developing a deeper low and the predictability continues to be above average. This system is expected to cause high winds to portions of the Mainland and the Aleutians, increased coastal surf and wintry precipitation. The suite of Alaska products was based off a starting point of the 12Z GFS/ECWMF/UKMET/CMC (leaning more toward GFS/ECWMF). The UKMET was removed after the first day. The inclusion and weighting of the GEFS, NAEFS and EC ensemble means began on Monday and were steadily increased through the middle and later time periods, ending day 8 with 100% means and 0% of the deterministic GFS/ECWMF/CMC. This continued to maintain a sense of continuity while becoming a little more amplified with the height pattern then compared to the previous forecast package. Campbell Hazards: - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon-Wed, Oct 24-Oct 26. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html