Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 754 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 24 2022 - 12Z Fri Oct 28 2022 ...A Bering Sea low will bring a threat of high winds and waves to the Aleutians early to middle of next week with heavy snow possible for inland western Alaska midweek... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazards Highlights... The extended period will begin with a deepening cyclone entering the western portion of the Bering Sea. The ECMWF has been the fastest among the guidance while the GFS and CMC keep the cyclone center farther to the west over the Bering Sea. The ensemble means also indicate this tendency. The system is expected to spread high winds and waves across the Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula especially on the back side of the system with very gusty winds by midweek. Precipitation amounts across the Aleutians are not expected to be excessive. However, by the time the system reaches the West Coast by around next Wednesday, deep south to southwesterly flow from the Pacific overrunning trapped inland cold air is forecast to bring a threat of heavy snow across the inland sections of western Alaska midweek. Toward the end of next week, ensemble means show decent agreement with the main cyclone center sliding into the Gulf of Alaska. The GEFS again favor a slower evolution into this overall pattern. Heavy precipitation is possible late next week from the southern coast to the Panhandle. The faster ECMWF and CMC favor the heaviest precipitation to focus farther down across the Panhandle. The suite of Alaska products was based on 40% 12Z ECMWF/00Z/12Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean. The faster EC/CMC solution is favored toward the end of the forecast period, in which mostly a comprise of the ensemble means is used. This blend maintains reasonably good continuity on the mass fields with the previous forecast package. On the other hand, the QPF amounts have increased along the southern periphery of Alaska. Kong Hazards: - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon-Wed, Oct 24-Oct 26. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html