Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 759 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 1 2022 - 12Z Sat Nov 5 2022 ...Overview... The weather pattern is expected to remain rather active across the southern portions of the state for the first few days of November. A phasing of two separate storm systems (one over the northern Bering and the other near the central Aleutians early next week) will likely result in a single and stronger storm that will likely affect portions of western Alaska with snow and gusty winds, and a new triple point low is likely to develop over the northern Gulf by late Wednesday into Thursday/Friday that will likely produce an atmospheric river event for the southeast Panhandle region. This will result in a more amplified upper flow pattern with a trough over Alaska and a ridge over the western Bering. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... The latest model guidance is still having some challenges with the phasing of the two low pressure systems over the Bering and the Aleutians early next week, and there continues to be significant run-to-run model variance with the past few runs of the GFS, with the trend being weaker compared to yesterday's runs. The ECMWF is still portraying a strong and rather impactful system for southwestern Alaska, with the ICON model indicating more of a middle ground solution in terms of system strength. Interestingly enough, model agreement actually improves some going forward to Thursday with decent agreement on the new northern Gulf low and also with the developing upper ridge axis/surface high over the Aleutians and the Bering. Taking these factors into account, some WPC continuity was maintained and about half of the deterministic guidance was used going into the latter half of the forecast period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The Bering Sea low will be the main feature causing significant weather early next week. The tight pressure gradient with the low will cause concerns for strong winds across the southwestern mainland with the potential for some blizzard conditions during the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. If the stronger model solutions come to pass, then high winds gusting over 40 mph and even some coastal flooding could result, so this is something that will continue to be monitored going forward. Attention then turns to the southern mainland coast and the southeast Panhandle region as an atmospheric river event will probably develop and produce very heavy mountain snow and a few inches of rain near the coastal areas for the Thursday-Saturday time period. In terms of temperatures, expect most of the central and southern portions of the state to remain colder than normal, and near normal from the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast most days, with sub-freezing high temperatures expected for most inland areas except for the Aleutians and the southern coast/Panhandle region. Hamrick Hazards: - High winds across portions of western mainland Alaska, Mon-Wed, Oct 31-Nov 2. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html