Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 720 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 02 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 06 2022 ...Overview... The weather pattern is expected to remain rather active across the southern portions of the state for much of the period. The start of the period features a now phased surface low in the Bering Sea, with snow and gusty winds likely across portions of Western Alaska. Around Wednesday-Thursday next week, and a new triple point low is likely to develop over the northern Gulf (and shifting south with time) that could produce an atmospheric river event for the southeast Panhandle region. A more amplified upper level pattern will build over the domain later next week and weekend with troughing progressing through Alaska, and ridging building over the Bering. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... The latest model guidance continues to show timing/placement differences as the period begins Tuesday with the surface low in the Bering Sea. GFS is west, UKMET east, CMC and ECMWF more solidly in the middle of the two. A blend of the deterministic solutions (with some preference towards the middle ground CMC and ECMWF) seemed to give a good starting point both with placement and strength. After Wednesday, a new triple point redevelopment low should form in the northern Gulf with good agreement in the models that this drop south and east along the Panhandle with time. The pattern should trend more amplified by late week with ridging building over the Bering/Aleutians and eventually western Alaska next weekend. The guidance agrees high pressure should take hold over much of at least southern Alaska but there are timing differences well upstream which impacts strength of the ridge over the Bering and northwest Alaska. A trend towards the ensemble means seemed to mitigate some of the late period noise. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The Bering Sea low will be the main feature causing significant weather as the period begins. The tight pressure gradient with the low will cause concerns for strong winds across the southwestern mainland with the potential for some blizzard conditions as well. Depending on exact system strength (which still shows some degree of uncertainty), coastal flooding could be a hazard. Attention then turns to the southern mainland coast and the Panhandle region as an atmospheric river event appears set to develop and produce very heavy mountain snow and a few inches of rain near the coastal areas for the Thursday-Saturday time period, shifting southward with time. On the north side of the low, gusty northerly winds may create a high wind concern across portions of the Panhandle next weekend, even after much of the rain moves through. In terms of temperatures, expect most of the central and southern portions of the state to remain colder than normal, and near normal from the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast most days, with sub-freezing high temperatures expected for most inland areas except for the Aleutians and the southern coast/Panhandle region. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html