Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 627 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 6 2022 - 12Z Thu Nov 10 2022 ...Synoptic Scale Overview... An impressive upper level ridge and corresponding surface high will evolve across the mainland with an omega block type pattern expected to develop going into early next week, with surface pressures perhaps reaching 1050 mb across portions of the eastern Interior! There will be some shortwave/frontal passages across the Aleutians and the Bering, although the eastward progress of these will be limited by the big high to the east. The ridge will likely break down some by the end of the forecast period with a broad trough becoming established just west of the state. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... Overall, the model guidance shows fairly good agreement at the start of the forecast period this weekend, and there is also strong agreement in the ensemble guidance for the high latitude ridge axis that develops. The greatest degree of forecast uncertainty resides west of this ridge across the Bering and the Aleutians where a few shortwave perturbations will track northwestward, although none of these appear to be particularly strong in the guidance at this juncture. Model spread increases substantially going into the Wednesday and Thursday time period across the Aleutians and North Pacific. In terms of model preferences, a multi-deterministic blend sufficed through Monday, followed by gradually increasing portions of the GEFS/EC means through the middle of next week. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... By this weekend into early next week, high pressure will govern the weather pattern across much of the mainland with little in the way of snow or wind for most areas. This will also produce a strong low level temperature inversion for the central and eastern Interior valleys, with readings well below typical early November levels and very little mixing with the warmer air aloft. Some locations will likely remain subzero for a few days across the Yukon Flats of the eastern Interior, mainly Sunday and into Monday before a gradual moderating trend ensues. Northern Alaska may end up being near or slightly above normal for temperatures where there will be less of an inversion to deal with north of the Brooks Range. Across the northwestern mainland coast, high winds and rough surf are becoming more likely on Sunday as a strong storm system passes northward across the Arctic Ocean, and then winds abate going into the beginning of the week. Winds are expected to abate across the southern coastal areas and the Panhandle early next week after very windy conditions this weekend. Hamrick - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and southern mainland Alaska, Sun, Nov 6. - High winds across portions of southern mainland Alaska, Sat, Nov 5. - High significant wave heights for coastal portions of northwestern mainland Alaska, Sun, Nov 6. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html