Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 501 PM EDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 07 2022 - 12Z Fri Nov 11 2022 ...Synoptic Scale Overview... A near-record high pressure system for November will begin the period across portions of the Yukon before sliding southward and weakening, causing cold conditions across the AK Panhandle. Overall, ridging across eastern AK should continue for much of the period while storminess impacts the southern and western extremeties of AK. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... Overall, the model guidance shows fairly good agreement through the period, with some spread lingering mid-next week across the Aleutians with a cyclone moving by to the south early to mid next week and the persistence of the mid to upper level ridging over AK. In both cases, weighted against the 12z ECMWF solution, though a small percentage was included in the blend as a precaution. A compromise of the 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, 12z Canadian, and 12z UKMET sufficed early on before starting to minimize the ECMWF (and to some degree its ensemble mean) in favor of the 12z NAEFS for the pressures, 500 hPa heights, and winds. For QPF, used a compromise of the 19z NBM and 12z GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF guidance to account for uncertainty. The remainder of the grids relied heavily on the 19z NBM. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... Much of Alaska will begin the week cold and dry in the vicinity of an Arctic surface high. Strong gap flows continue to be a concern through early next week on the back side of low pressure drifting toward the Pacific Northwest. Over the Southeast Alaska Panhandle, much below average temperatures are expected through the 9th/early next week as the frigid Arctic air infiltrates keeping high temperatures anomalously cold -- in the 20'sF -- for several days in a row. Otherwise, expect the bulk of the heavy precipitation chances to be confined to the Northernmost Aleutians and the Kenai through Tuesday as a triple-point low migrates through the Gulf of Alaska. Additional high wind and wave concerns remain to the north over Bristol Bay and into the Bering Sea Sunday/Monday as a pair of occluding surface lows support strong periods of strong winds upwards of 60 mph, sometimes favorably oriented toward the coast to lead to coastal flooding concerns. Roth/Asherman - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 7-Nov 8. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Nov 6-Nov 7. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Nov 7. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun-Wed, Nov 6-Nov 9. - High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Nov 6. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html