Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 459 PM EST Sat Dec 03 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 07 2022 - 12Z Sun Dec 11 2022 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... The guidance shows general agreement concerning the general flow pattern in and around AK -- a persistent upper low/trough over eastern Asia, broad ridging across the north-central Pacific and at times AK, and downstream troughing across the far northeast Pacific and western North America. The area of better model agreement remains near the AK Panhandle for a third day. The same is not true in the Aleutians, where the guidance continues to struggle with the depth aloft of a couple shortwaves/possible upper lows and their related cyclone moving through/near the area, possibly into the Bering Sea. The 12z UKMET was a slow outlier today, and day-to-day changes in individual pieces of deterministic guidance continues to be less than ideal. To deal with the uncertainty, for the 500 hPa heights, pressures, fronts, and winds, generally used a deterministic heavy blend of the 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, and 12z Canadian early on before including up to 60% of the 12z NAEFS mean/00z ECMWF ensemble means thereafter with tweaks made (lower pressures and increase winds) so that systems weren't so washed out. This idea maintained reasonable continuity with Thursday's forecast. The QPF used the 19z NBM and, 12z GFS, 12z Canadian, and 12z ECMWF solutions. The remainder of the grids were 19z NBM weighted, as usual. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... With the flow pattern expected, once the troughing shifts east across AK, a drying trend should be seen across the interior and North Slope while wet conditions are expected to be constrained to the Aleutians, southern coast, and AK Panhandle (which should see a bulk of the precipitation mid to late week). An interior and North Slope cooling trend begins next Thursday night initially due to an upper level trough, but continues afterward due to convergence aloft between the departing upper trough and a developing upper ridge across western mainland AK leading to decreasing cloudiness with cold and dry surface high pressure system enveloping the interior. Low temperatures are forecast to fall as low as -30F across the normally colder eastern interior by next Friday night. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html