Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 537 PM EST Thu Dec 08 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 12 2022 - 12Z Fri Dec 16 2022 ...Overview... An upper low/trough across portions of eastern Asia in the northwest Pacific leads to a broad downstream ridge that, for the most part, is over Alaska this period. This leads to broad southwesterly flow across the state, which should act to moderate interior temperatures for the chill that exists in the short range. A stormy pattern exists across the Aleutians and portions of the Bering Sea, while systems occasionally escape the trough to the west to impact southern Alaska, with a preference for southern AK to be wet. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... The guidance appeared very agreeable after the 00z/06z suite became available, only to fall apart to some degree once 12z guidance became available. The WPC preferred blend began with a general consensus of the ECWMF/CMC/UKMET/GFS to deal with the detail issues early on (Sunday into Tuesday). The ensemble means were introduced during Day 5 and steadily increased to about 55% by the end of the extended period/mid next week. This preference maintained us much ridging as possible across AK, which early on the 12z GFS was a champion of, before the Canadian/ECMWF flipped the script late in the period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... This pattern should lead to increasingly mild/less cold conditions across the interior as Pacific moisture/cloudiness overwashes the state. The west and south should be mild as onshore flow persists more often than not. Storms moving through the western Bering Sea should bring gale to storm force winds to the Aleutians at times, with an initial system in the northeast Pacific/Gulf of AK bringing gales to the south-central and southeast coasts early next week. The southern part of the state should be quite wet due to persistent onshore flow. Roth Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Dec 11 and Thu, Dec 15. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Dec 12. - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Wed, Dec 14. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Aleutians, Tue, Dec 13. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Dec 11. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html