Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EST Tue Jan 03 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 07 2023 - 12Z Wed Jan 11 2023
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance is agreeable on showing weakening cyclones over
portions of the Bering Sea and northeast Pacific well north of the
main band of the Westerlies, which are depressed into the 30s
latitude, with occluded cyclones tracking closer to the mid 40s
latitude, well south of the state. Other than the 12z GFS being a
little stronger with mid-level troughing across western AK, which
results in a storm track closer to the Aleutians this weekend, the
guidance is fairly agreeable. To deal with the detail issues
including the GFS apparent issues in those locations, used a blend
of the 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, 12z Canadian, and 12z UKMET this
weekend, before blending in up to half of the 12z NAEFS/00z ECMWF
early next week.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A low pressure center is forecast to move north to northwest into
the Gulf of Alaska this weekend while fading. Another low in the
southern Bering Sea should be doing the same this weekend. Some
moisture from the Pacific will likely flow northward with the lows
and overspread portions of the the AK Panhandle, South Central AK,
and the Aleutians which have the higher rain chances this period.
Mildness should remain across the Aleutians and southern AK coast
with seasonably cold and dry conditions across the Interior.
Roth
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html