Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 15 2023 - 12Z Thu Jan 19 2023 ...Overview... The latest guidance continues to have a fair handle on the large scale pattern through the extended period. An area of lingering weakness aloft is expected to remain in proximity to the Arctic/North Coast while much of the Mainland will have ridging, although is will be slowly weakening. Meanwhile, as an initially deep Aleutians storm weakens, an elongated trough will setup from the Bering Sea to portions of the northern Pacific and will feature some areas of low pressure to pass though. This large scale pattern looks to maintain itself through the extended period which will keep precipitation focused along the southern part of the mainland while lighter amounts forecast for the Southeast and the Aleutians. At the surface the mainland will remain in a gradient between strong high pressure over higher latitudes of the Arctic and the various surface lows to the south/southwest. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... More or less the latest models continue to show a consensus of multiple low tracking through the mean elongated trough from the Bering to the Gulf of Alaska, albeit with varying degrees of spread. The ECWMF continues to be the leader with the pattern evolution with the CMC and GFS jockeying for a close second and third. Those solutions at times are either too fast/slow, not was strong/stronger etc but overall pair well with the ECWMF and its ensemble mean. Additionally, there is a growing consensus that another low develops will lift through the northern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska later in the extended period. The WPC blend leaned heavier on the ECWMF but also included the CMC, GFS, GEFS mean, EC Ensemble . Small inclusion of the UKMET early on and then the weighting of the means increased to 30 percent by day 8. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Areas of generally light to moderate precipitation will fall across portions of the Alaska Peninsula, Kenai Peninsula and along the southern and southeast coast. At times, there may be heavier intensities over the AK and Kenai Peninsulas periodically as these is where the best potential will be throughout the extended period given fairly persistent easterly low level flow. Otherwise most of the mainland away from the southern coast should stay fairly dry. The Aleutians should see unsettled conditions through the period, but with low confidence for any individual lows that could focus precipitation/wind beyond the initial deep low over the area on Friday. The gradual weakening of upper ridging over the state over the course of the period should promote a colder trend for temperatures. Lows may may still be above normal over most locations by early next week after starting out well above normal on Friday, but gradually increasing coverage of below normal highs will be possible over the interior and North Slope. Campbell No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html