Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 509 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 16 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 20 2023 ...Overview, Guidance Assessment & Expected Impacts... The latest guidance continues to have a fair handle on the large scale pattern through the extended period. The flow becomes increasingly cyclonic at most levels, except northeast AK, through the period. This should keep breezy conditions along AK's northern coast as well as along coastal western AK. It should remain mild coastal southern AK and the Aleutians, with colder conditions expected in the Interior and especially the North Slope. Embedded cyclones will lead to wetness across south-central and southeast AK, including the AK Panhandle. There appear to be three main surface lows -- one moving through the southeast Bering early, another potentially moving into the Kenai peninsula early, and a potentially large and deep cyclone moving southeast of the AK and Kenai Peninsulas late. Model spread isn't too large with two of the three cyclones -- the 12z Canadian was much slower in bringing the third into AK's vicinity and the faster GFS/slower ECMWF generally fit in with their respective ensemble means. The pressures, fronts, 500 hPa heights, and QPF were primarily based on a blend of the deterministic guidance early, before shifting away from the Canadian late and towards the 00z ECMWF/12z NAEFS means late. This led to faster frontal progression and stronger lows from continuity. The remainder of the grids were based on the 19z NBM. Roth Hazards Highlight... - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Jan 15-Jan 17. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Jan 15-Jan 17. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html