Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 546 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 28 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 01 2023 ...Significant pattern change will lead to increased chances of precipitation, milder than normal temperatures, and potential for gusty winds from the Aleutians to the western mainland late this week to early next week... ...Overview... A pattern change will be underway heading into the weekend as mean upper ridging builds in atop the state, lasting into next week in response to a couple of large upper troughs/lows in the western Bering Sea. Above average temperatures will abound over especially the western mainland given the ridge. The Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula and into the western mainland are likely to see more active weather with precipitation and gusty winds. Meanwhile the Panhandle should see a drying trend as well as cooling temperatures and some outflow winds with northerly flow to the east of the ridge axis. ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/UKMET and latest GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean solutions seem best clustered in amplified flow with good overall predictability despite lingering smaller scale embedded system timing/strength differences. A blend, weighted increasingly to the compatible ensembles and most amplified GFS for next week tends to mitigate these differences consistent with uncertainty and maintains mainland upper ridge strength reasonably on the stronger side of the full envelope of solutions as collaborated with Alaskan offices. The main uncertainties in the pattern are associated with the interaction of shortwaves around/into the ridge as system/impulse integrity will channel the main weather focus. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... It generally remains the case that upper ridging becoming established into the mainland should help moderate temperatures to well above normal across much of the state, with possible +30F anomalies for parts of the northwestern mainland by early next week. Temperatures could warm above the freezing mark in the southwestern mainland/Bristol Bay area, quite a change from current conditions. There could be impacts from snowmelt with these above freezing temperatures, and especially if precipitation falls as rain or freezing rain there due to the relative warmth. This is a possibility late week as precipitation crosses the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula as well as some possibly gusty winds along a front stemming from the western Bering low, which potentially makes its way into the western mainland, though the impacts farther east are less certain. The pattern seems to generally repeat early next week for another round of possible western Alaska precipitation/winds. Some available moisture could lead to snow showers over much of the mainland through next weekend, but currently only light QPF is expected. The Panhandle on the other hand is likely to see drier conditions than they have lately, as well as temperatures becoming slightly below average, and winds perhaps becoming gusty with offshore flow. Schichtel Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sun, Jan 27-Jan 29. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Thu-Fri, Jan 26-Jan 27. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sun, Jan 27-Jan 29. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html