Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 703 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 30 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 03 2023 ...Much milder than normal temperatures with periods of snow across the western mainland late this week to early next week... ...Overview with Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... While outbreaks of frigid air from Siberia bring snowy conditions across Japan, much of Alaska will be under the influence of an anomalously strong upper ridge through the medium-range period especially this weekend. Multiple disturbances moving across the northern Pacific will have a hard time breaking through the strong and anomalous ridge. Nevertheless, a few shortwaves are forecast to either pinch off or ride the top of the ridge and then move across northern Alaska. There is decent model agreement that one such shortwave will deliver a period of snow this weekend across northwestern Alaska and possibly into the interior sections afterwards. Farther south, unsettled weather will likely prevail across the Aleutians, the Alaska Peninsula and into the western mainland as disturbances blocked by the strong ridge in the Pacific turn north toward the Aleutians. Periods of precipitation and gusty winds can be expected for these areas but the precipitation is not expected to be excessive as the strong ridge will effectively weaken the disturbances. Meanwhile, the Panhandle will remain dry under the ridge axis through the weekend and into early next week but the cumulative effects of multiple disturbances moving across the Pacific will gradually erode the ridge, leading to an increasing chance of precipitation across the southern coastline and into the Panhandle as next week progresses. Above average temperatures will abound especially over the western mainland under the ridge. It generally remains the case that upper ridging becoming established into the mainland should help moderate temperatures to well above normal across much of the state, with possible +30F anomalies for parts of the northwestern mainland by early next week. Temperatures could warm above the freezing mark in the southwestern mainland/Bristol Bay area, quite a change from current conditions. There could be impacts from snowmelt with these above freezing temperatures, and especially if precipitation falls as rain or freezing rain there due to the relative warmth. This is a possibility late week as precipitation crosses the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula as well as some possibly gusty winds along a front stemming from the western Bering low, which potentially makes its way into the western mainland, though the impacts farther east are less certain. Given above average agreement depicted by the model ensemble means, the WPC medium-range forecasts were based on a blend of 40% from the 12Z GFS/GEFS, 40% from the 00Z/12Z EC/EC mean, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean, transitioning to mostly a blend of the ensemble means by Day 7 & 8. Kong Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Mon, Jan 27-Jan 30. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Thu-Fri, Jan 26-Jan 27. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sun, Jan 27-Jan 29. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html