Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 617 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 30 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 03 2023 ...Much milder than normal temperatures with periods of snow and mixed precipitation across the southwest/western mainland... ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a blend of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means in a pattern with overall near average predictability. A collaborated forecast plan lead to heaviest blend weighting being applied to the GFS early next week before switching to the still compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for mid-later next week amid growing forecast spread and uncertainty with embedded systems despite a reasonably consistent larger scale flow evolution in a pattern with overall near normal predictability. ...Pattern overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... An upper ridge will build over the Gulf of Alaska, the mainland and Arctic Ocean. The northern portion of the ridge will refocus as a closed upper high over the Arctic Ocean next week. In this pattern, shortwave energies and some snow focus will dig to the lee and underneath into the Interior. Additional system energies will work inland from the North Pacific/Bering Sea, but also split across the Gulf of Alaska. Unsettled weather will likely prevail across the Aleutians, the Alaska Peninsula and into the western mainland as disturbances blocked by the strong ridge in the Pacific turn north toward the Aleutians. Periods of precipitation and gusty winds can be expected for these areas, but the precipitation is not expected to be excessive as the strong ridge should weaken the disturbances. Meanwhile, the Panhandle will remain dry under the ridge axis through the weekend and into early next week, but the cumulative effects of multiple disturbances moving across the Pacific will gradually erode the ridge, leading to an increasing chance of precipitation across the southern coastline and especially into the Panhandle as next week progresses. Above average temperatures will abound especially over the western mainland under the ridge from the weekend into early next week. However, there is a growing guidance signal that indicates that upper troughing may undercut over the Interior as the upper ridge/high re-focuses over the Arctic Ocean next week. That said, it generally remains the case for moderate to above normal temperatures, with possible +30F anomalies for parts of the northwestern mainland into early next week. Temperatures could warm above the freezing mark in the southwestern mainland/Bristol Bay area. There could be impacts from snowmelt with these above freezing temperatures, and especially if precipitation falls as rain or freezing rain there due to the relative warmth. This is a possibility as precipitation crosses the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula as well as some possibly gusty winds along a front stemming from main Bering low, with splitting system enegries potentially working into the western mainland and also across the Gulf of Alaska to the Southeast Panhandle. Schichtel Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across western/southwestern Alaska, Sun-Tue, Jan 29-Jan 31. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html