Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 659 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 31 2023 - 12Z Sat Feb 04 2023 ...Pattern overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights with Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... A highly anomalous upper ridge over Alaska will continue to be eroded during the medium-range period as additional troughing associated with outbreaks of frigid air from Siberia work their way across the North Pacific. Model ensemble means show good agreement that a piece of the anomalous ridge will retreat into the Arctic Ocean and become an upper closed High while the main center of a polar vortex meanders over eastern Siberia. In this pattern, some snow is expected to linger early next week across the north-central interior section near a stationary front and where a break in the upper ridge allows some upper cyclonic flow to settle into the region. The snow is forecast to gradually taper off through late week. A lingering low pressure system centered over the Gulf of Alaska will bring unsettled weather slowly eastward from the Alaska Peninsula to the southern coastline and then into the Panhandle through next week. Precipitation is not expected to be excessive, though the southern Panhandle should see moderate to heavy amounts of precipitation Thursday or Friday. Meanwhile, the Aleutians will see unsettled weather as relatively weak cyclones/disturbances pass by into the middle of next week. Models are showing poor agreement on placing these cyclones in the midweek time frame near and south of the Aleutians but the associated weather impacts are not expected to be hazardous. Toward next weekend, model ensembles show decent signals that a larger scale cyclone will gradually approach the western Aleutians. Temperature-wise, the streak of above freezing temperatures over southwestern Alaska should continue into at least next Monday before a slow cooling trend sets in, bringing temperatures back to near normal for the entire Mainland by the end of next week. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a blend of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/CMC and GEFS/00Z ECMWF/CMC ensemble means in a pattern with overall near average predictability. The results are quite compatible with yesterday's forecast package. Kong Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Jan 30. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html