Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 609 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 03 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023 ...Pattern overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... An reasonably active and overall progressive flow pattern expected to develop over much of Alaska and vicinity from later this week into early next week should feature a general storm track from the northeast Asia through the northwest Pacific to the Bering Sea, a blocky closed Arctic Ocean upper ridge/high overtop, general northern mainland upper troughing and the undercutting of Pacific system energies into the Gulf of Alaska/northeast Pacific. Lead deepened low transition over the southeast Gulf of Alaska should provide a late week focus for moderate to heavy precipitation over the southern Panhandle including terrain enhanced mountain snowfall. Subsequent deep energy formation and track of an upstream deepened low in this period and through the weekend is expected to be diverted farther offshore to the south, with less Alaskan effect beyond maritime interests. Upstream, a modest Northwest Pacific low is uncertainly slated to work into the southeast Bering Sea Thursday into Friday along with some sensible weather focus into the Aleutians and Southwest/Western Alaska, but most likely mostly offshore. A much deeper and well organized storm has a stronger guidance signal and should work steadily across the Aleutiand and southern Bering Sea Friday and the weekend. The large and windy circulation should wrap some periods of moderately enhanced precipitation to Southwest/Western Alaska and downstream with triple point low enhancement into the Alaskan Peninsula, Kodiak Island and increasingly into the eastern Kenai Peninsula/south-central Alaska and eventually the Southeast Panhandle early next week. ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian and GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means offer quite similar larger scale flow evolutions across Alaska and vicinity through medium range time scales in a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Even so, embedded system differences evident throughout the period seem best mitigated by usage of a composite blend to maintain good product continuity. An exception may be with an unusuallly diverse Day 4/Friday low position to the Bering Sea where the 12 UTC GEFS mean may offer the best centroid cluster position from the full envelope of guidance lows. Manual adjustments were also applied at WPC to ensure sufficient system and wind intensity. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Sun, Feb 5. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html