Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 658 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 4 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 8 2023 ...Pattern overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... The main focus in the extended forecast will be the approach of a strong low from the North Pacific that'll head in the general direction of the Kenai Peninsula and southern mainland coast late Sunday and into Monday. There is the potential for widespread gale to storm force winds over the open waters, and gusty winds for the coastal areas. There remains a decent signal for heavy coastal rain and mountain snow from the Kenai Peninsula to the Chugach Mountains. Strong gap winds are also a possibility depending on how the low tracks. In terms of temperatures, the greatest negative anomalies are expected from the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast, where readings could be up to 25 degrees below early February averages. ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The models are generally in good agreement across most of the Alaska domain on Saturday, although the CMC is farther north than the model consensus with the surface low over the east Gulf region. Differences become more significant going into Sunday with the big storm system approaching the southern mainland coast, with the CMC to the east and the GFS stronger and southwest of the ECENS/ECMWF guidance. As the low weakens with inland approach Monday night, the low position is a bit surprisingly more in agreement here. However, uncertainty becomes high across the North Pacific going into the beginning of next week with another storm system tracking in the general vicinity of British Columbia and another trailing the initial Gulf low. The fronts/pressures forecast was hedged more in the direction of the GFS/ECMWF for the first two days owing to the more substantial differences noted with the CMC. For Monday and beyond, more of the ensemble means were incorporated into the forecast process. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Sun, Feb 5. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html