Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 657 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 5 2023 - 12Z Thu Feb 9 2023 ...Pattern overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... The main focus in the extended forecast will be the approach of a strong low from the North Pacific that'll head in the general direction of Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula late Sunday and into Monday. There is the potential for widespread gale to storm force winds over the open waters, and strong gusty winds for the coastal areas. Strong onshore flow could easily result in some coastal flooding at times of high tide. There remains a decent signal for heavy coastal rain and mountain snow from the Kenai Peninsula to the Chugach Mountains, with an inch or two of rainfall near the coast. Strong gap winds are also a possibility depending on how the low tracks. In terms of temperatures, the greatest negative anomalies are expected from the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast, where readings could be up to 25 degrees below early February averages Sunday through Tuesday, before a gradual moderation trend ensues across this region. A trend to milder conditions is likely across southern Alaska owing to increased onshore flow. ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The models are generally in good agreement across most of the Alaska domain on Sunday across most of the domain, and are coming into better agreement with respect to the big storm system moving in from the North Pacific. The CMC remains on the eastern side of the guidance, and the GFS a bit west of the consensus. There has also been a trend for a stronger low with central pressures possibly getting below 960 mb by 00Z Monday based on the UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS. As the low weakens near the coast Monday night, the CMC loses ensemble and GFS/ECMWF support for a trailing low over the southern Gulf on Tuesday that reaches the southeast Panhandle Tuesday night, and this scenario appears unlikely. Model spread increases further going into Tuesday and beyond across the North Pacific. The fronts/pressures forecast was hedged more in the direction of the GFS/ECMWF through Tuesday owing to the more substantial differences noted with the CMC. For the middle of the week, more of the ensemble means were incorporated into the forecast process. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of south-central mainland Alaska, Sun, Feb 5. - High winds across portions of south-central mainland Alaska, Sun, Feb 5. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of northern mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Feb 4-Feb 5. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html