Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 546 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 16 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 20 2023 ...Overview... *** A closed low/trough will be present over the Bering/North Pacific and send shortwave energy toward the Southwest Mainland/eastern Aleutians. Another upper-level trough developing in the northwest Pacific will track eastward while deepening into a closed low through the middle and latter periods. With a potentially strong low pressure at the surface parts of Alaska with could have high winds and light to moderate precipitation. This appears most likely spread across the Aleutians and the southern coast. ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest runs of the guidance are showing an improvement in the handling the evolution of the large scale pattern, especially for the latter periods. The last few days the guidance has the new closed low/upper trough fizzling out by/after Day 6 as is nears the western Aleutians; however the new runs keep this feature together albeit in split camps. The ECWMF/CMC favors a western position while GFS is much further east; furthermore, the EC ensemble and GEFS have a closer position to that of the ECWMF/CMC. By Day 8 another low there is a diffuse pattern featuring a low south of the far western Aleutian islands with another low well south of the central Aleutians and high pressure over the eastern Pacific/southeast Gulf of Alaska. All in all, this is average confidence pattern. The WPC leaned toward a combination of the 12Z ECMWF/CMC and the GEFS/EC Ensemble means with varying degree of weighting of the GFS due to its more pronounced timing differences. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Most of the active weather will focus from the Aleutians to the Southeast through the course of the extended period; however light to moderate precipitation will expand across portions of Southwest and Central Alaska by the end of the week and into the weekend. Addition rounds of precipitation across the south-central and southeast portion of the state as an upper troughing and surface low pressure tracking eastward likely through the northern Pacific. The specifics with this system still remain a bit uncertain however the model guidance has trended to better consensus on the evolution by Day 7 and 8. Winds are likely to affect the Aleutians as a frontal system stemming from a Bering Sea low comes in, which could spread farther east by the latter half of the week. Temperatures are expected to trend closer to seasonal average by the end of the week and hold fairly steady. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html