Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 556 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 18 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 22 2023 ...Blizzard Threat for Southwest Alaska Friday into Saturday... ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A closed low/trough will be present over the Bering/North Pacific and send lead shortwave energy and a deepened surface system toward the Southwest Mainland/eastern Aleutians; which with lingering uncertainties to the details may lead to high winds and a threat for blizzard conditions for portions of western/southwestern Alaska Friday into Saturday. Energies and surface system progression downstream across the northern Gulf of Alaska will meanwhile lead into a moderately wet period for Southeast Alaska over the weekend. Upstream, another upper-level trough developing in the northwest Pacific will then track gradually eastward while deepening into a closed low into next week to the western Bering Sea. This should lead to downstream upper ridge building by next week up into/over the mainland. With potentially deepened low pressure over the Bering, parts of Alaska with could experience the development of some enhanced winds and light to moderate precipitation. This appears likely to spread across the Aleutians, Bering Sea/maritime interests and eventually into western/southwestern AK heading into next midweek. Meanwhile, also expect some precipitation to linger across the southern coast and into the Southeast where activity may be further enhanced by northern stream energy next week, digging into the eastern Gulf of Alaska in amplifying flow to the lee of the aforementioned building mainland upper ridge. ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Overall, guidance offers a similar large scale pattern evolution that amplifies significantly over medium range time scales, but differ significantly from short range time frames with embedded smaller scale system intensities and tracks. Prefer a mainly GEFS ensemble mean and ECMWF ensemble mean composite days 4-8 with manual adjustments applied at WPC to ensure sufficient depth consistent with system predictability. This maintains max product continuity. Schichtel Hazards: - High winds across portions of Southwest Alaska, Fri, Feb 17. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html