Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 626 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 19 2023 - 12Z Thu Feb 23 2023 ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Central Pacific dynamic trends in satellite loops seem to favor a solution closest to the 12 UTC GFS for Alaska valid Sunday with associated system tracks into the state on the deeper side of the full envelope of solutions. Otherwise, the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means offer a similar larger scale pattern evolution that reasonably amplifies and slows significantly next week. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarilty derived from a guidance composite for days 5-8 (Monday-next Thursday) in a pattern with near/above average predictability. This overall provides good WPC product continuity. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... The next in a series of lead systems is expected to track into Southwest Alaska into Sunday as supporting energy transfers downstream into the northern Gulf of Alaska in progressive flow. Expect a moderate swath of wintry weather across the Southwest, the southern Interior and South-central. Enhanced precipitation will meanwhile develop and linger early next week into Southeast Alaska with northern Gulf system genesis and departure. This will lead into a cold and windy pattern with enhanced gap winds for the rest of next week as upper trough energies to surface flow response dig earnestly through the region. Upstream, upper-level systems from the northwest Pacific will include a series of closed lows that are slated to lift over the western Bering Sea next week and provide a protracted maritime threat. In this pattern, a downstream upper ridge will build significantly up over the mainland. With deepened low pressure systems over the Bering, wrapped enhanced winds and moderate precipitation will periodically develop through the period up through the western periphery of the upper ridge, but eastward progression will be slow. This activity will spread and focus across the Aleutians and Bering Sea/maritime interests, then eventually into western/southwestern AK and the AKpen/vicinity into mid-later next week. Schichtel Hazards: - No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html