Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 659 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 26 2023 - 12Z Thu Mar 02 2023 ...Increasing threat of heavy precipitation from southwestern Alaska to the Panhandle early to middle of next week... ...Pattern Overview, Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... The main area of concern during the medium-range period will likely be across southwestern Alaska where model guidance indicates an occluding cyclone will approach the region from the southwest by early next week. This system will likely bring heavy precipitation from west to east across the southwestern and southern periphery of Alaska from late Monday onward. Potential exists for moderate to locally heavy snow to impact farther inland across interior sections of southwestern Alaska later on Monday into Tuesday. This scenario is best supported by the ECMWF which continues to bring a stronger cyclone across Bering Sea and with the northern-most track among the guidance. The GFS, on the other hand, has favored a much more southern and faster track, with the 12Z GFS keeping the southern-most track right across the Aleutian island chain. The CMC has been in between these extremes. The WPC fronts/pressures forecast was derived from the 06Z GFS, 12Z GEFS, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z EC mean, and some contributions from the 12Z CMC and CMC mean. The results are quite compatible with WPC continuity. For the Panhandle, the remaining heavy precipitation should be winding down as the medium-range period begins on Sunday. Several days of quiet weather is expected before heavy precipitation from the aforementioned system is forecast to reach the Panhandle by midweek. Meanwhile, the mild temperatures late in this week are forecast to drop substantially from the 20s/30s down to the 0s/10s across much of the mainland for highs going into the weekend as the upper ridge breaks down. The coldest readings are expected north of the Brooks Range, where the greatest coverage of subzero temperatures is likely. Depending on the track and magnitude of warm air advection with the large Bering Sea storm, temperatures are likely to moderate some across the southwestern mainland early next week. This will be crucial in determining how far inland the snow will spread with the arrival of the aforementioned system. Kong Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Feb 28-Mar 1. - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Sat, Feb 25. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html