Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 659 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 27 2023 - 12Z Fri Mar 03 2023 ...Threat of heavy precipitation from southwestern Alaska to the Panhandle early to middle of next week... ...Pattern Overview, Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... An occluding cyclone forecast to approach southwestern Alaska early next week will likely be the main system of concern during the medium-range period. This system will likely bring heavy precipitation from west to east across the southwestern and southern periphery of Alaska from late Monday onward. Potential exists for moderate to locally heavy snow to impact farther inland across interior sections of southwestern Alaska later on Monday into Tuesday. This scenario is best supported by the ECMWF which continues to bring a stronger cyclone across Bering Sea and with the northern-most track among the guidance. The deterministic GFS, on the other hand, has continued to indicate a more southern track but recent runs have subtly nudged the track further and further north. Meanwhile, the GEFS mean track has been much farther north than the deterministic GFS, and is in much better agreement with the ECMWF, CMC, and their ensemble means. In addition, the GEFS has been nudging the low track farther north as well. Therefore, inclusion of the deterministic GFS is minimized in today's WPC blend, especially for the early part of next week. The WPC fronts and PMSL forecasts were derived mainly from the 00Z & 12Z ECMWF and the EC mean, the 12Z GEFS, as well as smaller contributions from the 12Z GFS, 12Z CMC and CMC mean. The results are quite compatible with WPC continuity. The medium-range period should begin with relatively quiet weather next Monday with below to much below normal temperatures across west-central Alaska. However, precipitation ahead of the aforementioned low pressure system is forecast to reach the southwestern Alaska late Monday/Tuesday. Precipitation near the coast will have the highest chance to be in the form of a wintry mix. Farther inland however, potential exists for moderate to locally heavy snow to spread into interior sections of southwestern Alaska later on Monday into Tuesday depending on how far north the system will take. Thereafter, models are in relatively good agreement for heavy precipitation to spread from west to east across the southern coast to all of the Panhandle through next Thursday as a triple-point low develops near the southern coast by about next Wednesday. By next Friday, models agree that a drying trend should set in as the coastal system degenerates. Kong Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Feb 28-Mar 1. - Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Feb 28-Mar 1. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Feb 26-Feb 27. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html