Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EST Wed Mar 01 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023 - 12Z Fri Mar 10 2023
...Areas of heavy precipitation and high winds are forecast to
impact the eastern Aleutians and western mainland Sunday and
Monday...
...Pattern Overview with Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment
and Weather Highlights...
A sustained stream of moisture from the Pacific is forecast to set
up along a relatively narrow zone from the eastern Aleutians
northward through western Alaska during the early portion of the
medium-range period. This is in response to an anomalous ridge of
high pressure forecast to extend northward through mainland Alaska
while low pressure systems track from south to north along a
quasi-stationary front across the Bering Sea. Despite some
east/west fluctuations of the general storm tracks in the forecast
guidance, there has been good agreement on placing a relatively
narrow zone of heavy precipitation across the eastern Aleutians as
well as the western mainland mainly from Sunday through Monday,
before a gradual tapering off trend sets in on Monday.
Precipitation should be mainly rain for the lower elevations over
the eastern Aleutians while heavy snow is expected for the higher
elevations. Meanwhile, snow is expected to be the main
precipitation type across western Alaska, with heavy snow over the
southern half of the Seward Peninsula as well as the western
extension of the Brooks Range toward Point Hope. In addition,
high winds are forecast to accompany the snow especially closer to
the coast toward the western ends of the peninsulas where a very
strong low-level jet from the south is forecast to move across. A
slow drying trend is forecast by the middle of next week as models
indicate that the highly amplified pattern will begin to show
signs of breaking down.
Well above normal temperatures are forecast to expand northward
and eastward across mainland Alaska early next week with warmest
anomalies expected over the North Slope. In contrast,
temperatures across the Panhandle will likely be colder than to
much colder than average near the southern periphery of an arctic
high centered over Yukon. This general situation is forecast to
prevail through the middle of next week.
Kong
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the eastern Aleutians and
western Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 5-Mar 6.
- Heavy snow across portions of northwestern Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar
5-Mar 6.
- High winds across portions of western to northern Alaska, Sun,
Mar 5.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html