Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 PM EST Tue Mar 07 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 11 2023 - 12Z Wed Mar 15 2023
...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment/Pattern Overview...
...Guidance Overview...
Through late Saturday, the guidance is in good agreement
concerning troughing being maintained over AK by an upstream ridge
over Siberia/eastern Russia. The 12z Canadian/ECMWF strayed from
this idea in different ways beyond that time either by flattening
or outright destroying the upstream ridge. Overall, the 12z GFS
was the best fit to the 12z NAEFS/00z ECMWF ensemble means, so the
500 hPa height, pressures/fronts, winds, and QPF were weighted in
its direction. The remainder of the grids were more 19z NBM
based, as usual.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Dry conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend across
much of Alaska with rather cold arctic air remaining in place over
the Panhandle through next Monday. The tight pressure gradient
between the arctic high centered over northwestern Canada and the
lingering low over the Gulf of Alaska could result in bouts of
strong gusty offshore gap winds most likely across the northern
Panhandle Friday into Saturday. A slow increase in the chance of
precipitation is seen across the Panhandle as both the offshore
upper high and near-shore low retrograde further.
Roth/Kong
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html