Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 450 PM EST Tue Mar 07 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 11 2023 - 12Z Wed Mar 15 2023 ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment/Pattern Overview... ...Guidance Overview... Through late Saturday, the guidance is in good agreement concerning troughing being maintained over AK by an upstream ridge over Siberia/eastern Russia. The 12z Canadian/ECMWF strayed from this idea in different ways beyond that time either by flattening or outright destroying the upstream ridge. Overall, the 12z GFS was the best fit to the 12z NAEFS/00z ECMWF ensemble means, so the 500 hPa height, pressures/fronts, winds, and QPF were weighted in its direction. The remainder of the grids were more 19z NBM based, as usual. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Dry conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend across much of Alaska with rather cold arctic air remaining in place over the Panhandle through next Monday. The tight pressure gradient between the arctic high centered over northwestern Canada and the lingering low over the Gulf of Alaska could result in bouts of strong gusty offshore gap winds most likely across the northern Panhandle Friday into Saturday. A slow increase in the chance of precipitation is seen across the Panhandle as both the offshore upper high and near-shore low retrograde further. Roth/Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html