Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 507 PM EST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 12 2023 - 12Z Thu Mar 16 2023 ...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment/Pattern Overview... ...Guidance Overview... The guidance generally agrees on troughing being maintained across Alaska while ridging varies in strength upstream. Detail issues are larger in today's guidance. To deal with the uncertainty, used a compromise of the 12z GFS, 12z Canadian, 12z ECMWF, and 12z UKMET early on before strongly trending in the direction of the 00z ECMWF/12z NAEFS ensemble means, which were the basis for the 500 hPa height, pressures/fronts, winds. There wasn't much coverage to the QPF, but to deal with the uncertainty there blended in some 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF with the 19z NBM. The remainder of the grids were more 19z NBM based, as usual. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Dry conditions are expected to prevail for much of Alaska with arctic air remaining in place over much of mainland AK, with South-Central AK (March 14-15) and the Panhandle (March 12-14) the most below normal thermally. The tight pressure gradient between the arctic high centered over northwestern Canada and the lingering low over the Gulf of Alaska could result in bouts of strong gusty offshore gap winds most likely across the northern Panhandle into Saturday. Gale force winds will occasionally visit the northern Aleutians and the AK Peninsula on the backside of the upper level trough. Most of the snowfall/rainfall is expected in the AK Panhandle this period, with chances and amounts expected to slowly increase from this weekend through mid next week. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html