Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 520 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 28 2023 - 12Z Sat Apr 01 2023 ...Overview/Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Upper level ridging should remain across northern AK, but weaken with time as a series of weather systems move from the Bering Sea eastward into southern AK and the Gulf of AK next week. Unsettled weather, particularly heavy rain, should be constrained the southern/coastal sections of the state. In general, the synoptic pattern was well clustered and showed average to above average agreement, although run-to-run consistency wasn't ideal, particularly in the case of the GFS. For the pressures, winds, 500 hPa heights, and QPF, used a compromise of the 12z UKMET, 12z GFS, 12z Canadian, and 12z ECMWF to help deal with detail uncertainty early on before blending in the 12z NAEFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble means. The remainder of the grids were based primarily on the 19z NBM. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... The expected pattern favors high precipitation chances across the Interior early on (next Monday into Tuesday) before lowering into the chance category thereafter as another system dives to the south. The heaviest rainfall is expected from next Wednesday into next Friday, which should be heaviest somewhere between south-central AK and the AK Panhandle. Temperature-wise, the western mainland into the Brooks Range and North Slope can expect milder than average temperatures as deep layer southwesterly flow brings in warmer and moister air on Monday with a fairly expansive area of temperatures above freezing, even perhaps toward the North Slope on Sunday. Then the upper trough and the cold front making their way through the mainland early on should cool temperatures to a bit below normal, particularly highs, though the North Slope should remain milder than average. For the Panhandle, high temperatures are forecast to be generally below average next week while the lows are closer to normal. Roth/Taylor Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Mar 26. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Mar 26. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html