Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 718 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 12Z Mon May 29 2023 - 12Z Fri Jun 2 2023 ...Synoptic Overview... A closed upper low over the northern Gulf of Alaska is forecast to slowly track east towards the southeast Panhandle through the middle of next week, with a reinforcing shortwave dropping south behind it. Upper level ridging builds in across the Aleutians and the Bering for the Wednesday to Friday time period between the Gulf low and another storm system emerging off the Kamchatka Peninsula. Meanwhile, a polar cold front is forecast to drop south from the Arctic and bring colder weather for the Brooks Range and points north by midweek. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is in good overall agreement on the synoptic scale features through next week, with generally above average confidence noted for a day 7 and 8 forecast for most areas. The 12Z CMC was slightly misaligned with the consensus for Monday and Tuesday, but it was reasonably close to the ensemble means going into Wednesday and beyond. Therefore, a UKMET/GFS/ECMWF blend worked as a starting point through Tuesday, and then the CMC was substituted for the UKMET starting Wednesday whilst increasing use of the ensemble means to about 40 % by the end of the week, and still keeping about 20% each of the CMC/GFS/ECMWF. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... Much of the Southeast and southern coast will likely have ongoing light to occasionally moderate showers, owing to the slow moving disturbance over the northern Gulf. However, no areas of significant rainfall or snow are currently expected for this time period. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across portions of the Interior that will mainly be diurnally driven. For the first half of next week, most of the central and southern portions of the state will likely have slightly below average high temperatures, and above average for the northern third of the state ahead of the polar front. Cooler conditions return to the North Slope and Arctic Coast behind the front later in the week, and generally within 5-10 degrees of average elsewhere across the state with no temperature extremes expected. This will mainly equate to highs 55 to 65 and lows 35 to 45 for most locations. Hamrick No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html