Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 747 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 12Z Wed May 31 2023 - 12Z Sun Jun 4 2023 ...Synoptic Overview... A shortwave dropping south across the Alaska Peninsula will help to re-establish the closed low again over the Gulf going into the middle-end of the week. Upper level ridging briefly builds in across the Aleutians and the Bering for the Wednesday to Friday time period ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the general direction of the Kamchatka Peninsula, with a closed low likely over the southern Bering by next weekend. Meanwhile, a warm front will likely lift north through the entire state by next weekend and bring some of the warmest weather of the season thus far. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is in good overall agreement on the main synoptic scale features through next week. Some placement differences become apparent with the 12Z GFS and GEFS mean across the Gulf as the second shortwave builds southward, and it is displaced to the southwest of the CMC/ECMWF by Thursday and beyond, but generally more agreeable across mainland Alaska and handles the next storm over the Bering/Aleutians well. The CMC is southeast of the model consensus with the Bering low next weekend, but is similar to the consensus across the mainland. The fronts/pressures incorporated a general deterministic blend through Thursday, followed by slightly less of the GFS/CMC by next weekend whilst increasing contributions from the ensemble means to about half by that time. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... Much of the Southeast and southern coast will likely have ongoing light to occasionally moderate showers through Friday, owing to the slow moving disturbances over the northern Gulf. However, no areas of significant rainfall or snow are currently expected for this time period. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across portions of the Interior that will mainly be diurnally driven. A more concentrated band of showers may develop across the Aleutians later in the period as the next storm system approaches. Temperatures will generally be slightly cooler than average for most days across much of the mainland for the Wednesday to Thursday time period, with the greatest anomalies expected across western Interior areas. However, a noteworthy warming trend is likely to commence Friday and especially into next weekend as a warm front lifts northward with upper level ridging in place. Afternoon highs could make a run at 80 degrees for some of the lower elevations in the Interior, and widespread 70s elsewhere. Hamrick No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html