Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 642 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 1 2023 - 12Z Mon Jun 5 2023 ...Synoptic Overview... An upper level low is forecast to be in place across the Gulf through the end of the week with some showers from the southern coastal areas to the southeast Panhandle region, and this low drops southward away from the region by the weekend. An anomalous arctic closed low is expected just north of the Arctic Coast on Thursday and this slows moves away towards the northwest through Friday and into the weekend. The departing arctic low/trough allows an upper ridge axis to steadily build across much of the mainland with a pronounced warming trend expected. Meanwhile, a storm system approaches the Bering and the Aleutians by Sunday with more showers. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is in good overall agreement on the main synoptic scale features through the end of next week. One of the main differences noted is a stronger upper ridge and corresponding warmer temperatures in the GFS compared to the model consensus next weekend and beyond, so temperatures were slightly reduced from the NBM in the Saturday-Monday time period across the Interior and North Slope areas. The fronts/pressures incorporated a nearly general deterministic blend through Friday, followed by slightly less of the GFS/CMC by next weekend whilst increasing contributions from the ensemble means to about half by that time. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... Much of the Southeast and southern coast will likely have ongoing light to occasionally moderate showers through Friday, owing to the slow moving disturbances over the northern Gulf. However, no areas of significant rainfall or snow are currently expected for this time period. A more concentrated band of showers may develop across the Aleutians next weekend as the next storm system approaches. Temperatures will generally be near average through Friday, with some negative anomalies expected across the North Slope Thursday in closer proximity to the arctic low. However, a noteworthy warming trend is likely to commence Friday night and especially into next weekend as a warm front lifts northward with upper level ridging in place. Afternoon highs will likely be in the 65-75 degree range for many of the lower elevations of the central and eastern Interior by Sunday and Monday, and overnight lows in the 40s. Hamrick No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html