Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 02 2023 - 12Z Tue Jun 06 2023
...Synoptic Overview/Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Narrow ridging across southern interior Alaska late on Thursday is
expected to expand across much of the interior with time as a deep
layer cyclone intensifies over the southern Bering Sea. The 12Z
model guidance suite is in good overall agreement on the main
synoptic scale features through the end of next week, though
detail issues remain. The fronts/pressures/QPF incorporated
mainly deterministic blend before inclusion of some 00z ECMWF/12z
NAEFS mean from this weekend onward. The remainder of the grids
were based on the 19z NBM with some 12z ECMWF inclusion.
...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards...
Some precipitation moves into the AK Peninsula late this week into
early next weekend as a system moves in from the northeast
Pacific. A strengthening deep layer cyclone over the Aleutians in
a week could pose a threat of heavy rain and gale force -- with
some storm force -- winds across the AK Peninsula and
southwest/south-central Alaska. A noteworthy warming trend is
likely to commence Friday into next weekend as a warm front lifts
northward with upper level ridging in place. Afternoon highs will
likely be in the 65-75F degree range for many of the lower
elevations of the central and eastern Interior by Sunday and
Monday, and overnight lows rising towards 50F.
Roth
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html