Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 705 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 20 2023 - 12Z Sat Jun 24 2023 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET and NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean solutions seem reasonably well clustered over the next week despite some periodic system and stream flow energy phasing differences. A composite blend with a focus on the higher resolution models acts to maintain great WPC product continuity with detail consistent with a pattern with above normal predictability and longevity. Additional adjustments were manually applied to offshore low pressure systems to ensure sufficient depth given favorable upper support. ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights... A closed low/amplified trough position aloft and local surface focus centered over Northwest Alaska should prove slow to vacate, but may lose influence late next week/weekend. Expect the region and surrounding areas from western Alaska and the Interior through the North Slope and into the Arctic Ocean will experience unsettled conditions next week to include multiple periods with some locally enhanced winds and precipitation. Meanwhile farther south out from the westerlies, a leading closed upper low and associated surface low/frontal system with deepened moisture will linger mainly over/south of the Aleutians early next week. The system will gradually work eastward into and then dig over the Gulf of Alaska mid-later next week. Flow around the system favors moderate rainfall chances from the Aleutians and Alaksan Peninsula/Kodiak Island out into South-Central next week, but may be slow to work further eastward toward Southeast Alaska as shielded by amplified eastern Gulf of Alaska to Interior to Southeast Alaska upper ridging. Upstream, a continued and energetic/active storm flow off eastern Asia and the western Pacific will continue to churn up additional low pressure systems to include deepened storm tracks into the Aleutians/Bering Sea through later next week that would offer potential for high winds/waves and wrapping rains that may work steadily eastward toward southwest Alaska and vicinity heading into next weekend in a pattern to monitor for any emerging impacts. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html