Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 641 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 2 2023 - 12Z Thu Jul 6 2023 ...Synoptic Overview and Sensible Weather... A strong upper low just south of the eastern Aleutians Sunday morning is forecast to lift northward across the Alaska Peninsula and then Bristol Bay by late Monday. A second upper low is expected to develop over the western Bering around this time and then pivot around the decaying upper low near southwestern Alaska. East of the big upper trough will be a downstream ridge axis extending across northeastern mainland Alaska into the Yukon Territory. Much of the eastern Gulf region should also be under an upper ridge axis. The storm system lifting north across the Alaska Peninsula Sunday into early Monday is expected to produce heavy rain across the windward terrain from Kodiak Island to the Kenai Peninsula and portions of the Chugach Mountains, and then improving conditions going into Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mild across much of the Interior, with highs reaching well into the 70s and even some lower to middle 80s possible across the Yukon Flats. Readings mainly in the 60s are expected for the North Slope, and upper 40s to lower 50s near the Arctic Coast. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is in good overall agreement on most synoptic scale features for the upcoming weekend and into Monday, so a general model blend suffices as a starting point in the forecast process. Going forward into the middle of next week, the CMC is northwest of the model consensus with the second closed low near the Aleutians, but the agreement on its position is improved compared to yesterday's forecast. By next Thursday, the ECMWF is considerably stronger with a polar low north of the Bering Strait, but otherwise reasonably close to the ensemble means elsewhere. The use of the ensemble means increased to about 50% by next Thursday. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Peninsula and the Kenai Peninsula, Sun-Mon, Jul 2-Jul 3. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html