Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 08 2023 - 12Z Wed Jul 12 2023 ...Overview and Weather/Hazards highlights... Alaska weather should stay pretty active during the medium range period from this weekend into early-mid next week. Lead upper troughing and unsettled/wet conditions will lift northeastward across the Interior/North Slope into this weekend and lead to southern Arctic Ocean low formation. To the west, a next main system will dive south to the Bering Sea into this weekend, spinning up a closed upper low and winding surface system set lift slowly northward over the eastern Bering and western Alaska through early-mid next week, with eastward motion blocked by ridging rebuilding over western North America into eastern Alaska. This will favor possible weekend heavy rain/runoff threat for Southwest Alaska, with additional activity spreading up through the western mainland through early-mid next week with slow system demise. More uncertainty surrounds additional but less well defined in guidance possible systems set to work towards the Aleutians and Bering Sea, with associated surface system and energy/rainfall focus also then breaking underneath from the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska and into the southern tier of the state next week. This general pattern should keep much of Alaska cooler, with daytime highs 10-20 degrees below normal for this time of the year. The exception to this will be parts of the eastern Interior and Southeast Alaska where conditions should stay above normal and warm (with temperatures into the 70s to near 80 at times). ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences and Predictabilty Assessment... Overall, prefer a blend of the reasonably clustered 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian Saturday into Monday for best product continuity and detail consistent with a pattern with near average predictability. Models continue to exhibit an ongoing trend of poor forecast spread and run to run continuity by Days 7-8, lending quick transition to the still compatible ECMWF/NAEFS ensemble means as uncertainty grows. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html