Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 628 PM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 10 2023 - 12Z Fri Jul 14 2023 ...Overview and Weather/Hazards highlights... A compact upper trough/low and associated lead frontal system with showers will continue to lift slowly from the eastern Bering Sea and western Alaskan mainland this weekend to the southern Arctic Ocean and across the North Slope/Northern Interior with very gradual system demise through early-mid next week around the periphery of an upper ridge lingering over eastern and Southeast Alaska. Additional upstream upper trough energies and impulses to the west of the state remain less well depicted or as well organized in guidance, but should be monitored for any growing guidance signals next week. However, a mid-late late next week system that now has a growing system works into the western Bering as a maritime interest. Meanwhile, additional systems are set to split across the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea into Southwest Alaska and the Alaskan Peninsula along with associated surface system and energy to support modest to locally moderate rainfall chances by early next week. The guidance signal for this organized system has increased. This main system will subsequently, along with rainfall/unsettled weather chances, break underneath the Alaskan southern tier and then increasingly with time next week lead to the carving out an amplified upper trough/system well offshore over the Gulf of Alaska as mainly a maritime interest. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences and Predictability Assessment... A composite of best clustered 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean guidance decently preserves WPC product continuity for next week in a pattern with seemingly near average predictability, albeit with increasing forecast spread over time. More progressive Arctic flow of the 12 UTC UKMET/Canadian seems less likely given flow history and upstream upper ridge amplitude. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy rain for western mainland Alaska, Sun, Jul 9. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html