Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 731 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 11 2023 - 12Z Sat Jul 15 2023 ...Overview and Weather/Hazards highlights... An upper level trough is expected to be in place across western Alaska at the beginning of the forecast period early Tuesday and then across the North Slope/Northern Interior, with gradual system weakening through early-mid next week around the periphery of an upper ridge lingering over eastern Alaska and the Yukon. A new low pressure system then develops over the Gulf region and then lingers in place there through the end of the week, and this will support modest to locally moderate rainfall chances by early-mid next week. The guidance signal for this organized system has increased. A second system is likely to develop over the western Bering Sea late in the forecast period and may result in increased rainfall chances for portions of the Aleutians. However, no organized areas of heavy rainfall are expected during this forecast period. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences and Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite is in very good synoptic scale agreement across the Alaska domain and adjacent waters going through the early to middle part of next week. In regards to the low pressure system developing over the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday, the 12Z GFS is displaced a little to the southeast of the model consensus going into the second half of the week, and stronger with an upper low near the Arctic Coast. By the Friday-Saturday time period, the ECMWF and CMC are close in their depiction of the Gulf low, and also reasonably close with the upper low over the western Bering, and the greatest model differences by this time reside across the Arctic and northwestern Canada. The fronts/pressures forecast was primarily derived from a deterministic model blend for Tuesday and Wednesday, and then ensemble means were gradually increased each day to about 50% by next Saturday. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html