Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 657 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 15 2023 - 12Z Wed Jul 19 2023 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences and Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET solutions overall seem best clustered and most in line with ensembles Saturday into Monday, bolstering forecast confidence to a degree in a composite to smooth the less predictable smaller scale detail. The 12 UTC Canadian offers an outlier solution that digs more ample Bering Sea/Western Alaskan upper trough energies down to the Alaskan Peninsula and Gulf of Alaska. While less likely, this scenario is plausible given potential interaction with a highly anomalous upstream Pacific upper ridge poking northward into the Aleutians. Later into next week, prefer a composite of still compatible 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means amid growing forecast spread and uncertainty, albeit with some manually applied adjustments to maintain better day to day system strength continuity given support. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Moist inflow ahead of deep and persistent Bering Sea mean troughing will lead to bouts of light to moderately heavy rains across particularly the western Mainland and into the Alaska Peninsula into this weekend, and with less organization spreading into much of the Mainland and southern tier areas into next week. Southwest Alaska seems to have the best chance for locally heavier rains and unsettled weather conditions in proximity to a main surface low and frontal system associated with upper trough lobe/height fall approach this weekend. Otherwise, rainfall amounts do not look to be too heavy overall, but more showery and diurnally driven, with enhanced amounts possibly over the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html