Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 PM EST Sun Nov 05 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 09 2023 - 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023
...Multi-day Heavy Precipitation Threat from Southern to Southeast
Alaska...
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
Guidance solutions seem reasonably well clustered valid for the
Thursday into Saturday forecast. A preferred composite of the 12
UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models for best detail should offer a
good forecast basis in a pattern with the expectation of above
normal predictability. Given the favorable upper support signal,
WPC progs depict deeper main offshore storms than continuity in
this timeframe. Onward into later next weekend and early next
week, opted to switch to still compatible GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF
ensemble means amid growing forecast spread. WPC product
continuity overall reasonably well maintained with this forecast
plan.
...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A series of dynamic/amplified upper troughs and main deepened
surface lows/frontal systems will work from the southern Bering
Sea and northern Pacific into and across the Gulf of Alaska this
week. A lead storm in this forecast period is expected to work
inland from the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday with another hot
on its heels on a track from the southern Bering Sea/Aleutians
through the Gulf of Alaska Thursday into next weekend. Yet another
storm may reach the Bering Sea later next weekend, with trends
showing a more northward track than the current pattern that may
lead toward some effect into western Alaska by early next week to
monitor. All these systems offer protracted maritime wind/wave
threats. High winds and a deepened lead/rotating moisture feed
looks to increasingly fuel development of an emerging heavy
precipitation pattern, especially from Southcentral to Southeast
Alaska. This will include threats for heavy coastal rains and
inland/mountain snow, with ample precipitation totals and impacts
accumulating mid-later week through next weekend.
Meanwhile, lingering lowered heights and periodic pockets of
modest moisture rotating over an unsettled Interior and North
Slope may support scattered light snows next week with protracted
easterly fetch winds offering blowing snow situations to monitor
locally.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html