Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 538 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 12Z Fri Dec 29 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 02 2024 ...General Overview/Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Initial troughing extending from the Mainland into the Gulf will weaken/shift east with time, eventually being replaced by a strengthening ridge next Monday/New Years Day. This blocky ridge will help keep mean troughing across the Bering Sea with the general storm track being near/south of the Aleutians and deep layer moisture flow to be southerly to south-southeasterly directed into the southern coast/Panhandle region. The first modestly strong system should affect the AK Peninsula/southern Coast region on New Years Day, with a second stronger system towards the west-central Aleutians next Tuesday. Overall, the latest 12z guidance shows pretty good agreement on the evolution of the upper pattern, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the details involving placement and strength of individual systems near the Aleutians and weakening as they move into the Gulf. A general model blend of the deterministic models seems to provide a good starting point to the forecast, with more incorporation of the ensemble means by especially the second half of the period. Overall, this maintains pretty good consistency with yesterdays WPC AK forecast as well. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The expected flow pattern leads to some confidence in several inches of precipitation (mostly rain, with snow at the highest elevations) across the southern extremities of Alaska from the AK Peninsula eastward to the Panhandle/Southeast associated with several low pressure systems directing moist southerly flow into the coastal regions. Precipitation, locally heavy, should initially focus across the Panhandle/Southeast Alaska next weekend with a weakening cold front across the region. Showers may continue into the New Year next week, but should overall dry out as a ridge builds over the region. The next system approaches the AK Peninsula region on New Years Day/Monday with possibly heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Gale to storm-force winds are expected over the ocean, but colder air over interior Alaska could lead to periods of enhanced gap winds in favorable spots. This system should weaken quickly as it pulls north into Mainland Alaska, while at the same time, a stronger low affects the Aleutians and eventually again the AK Peninsula/southern Coast. A significant warming trend will be happening across Alaska through the period. Temperatures across the south-central into interior Alaska could be near or below normal Thursday and Friday, but should quickly warm up to well above normal next weekend and beyond. This equates to temperatures near or slightly above freezing across the Peninsula, Southern Coast, and Panhandle. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html