Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Dec 31 2023 - 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024 ...Wet pattern for the southern fringes of Alaska... ...Windy conditions expected in pockets around the state, especially early to mid next week, as a large and deep storm moves into the region... ...Overview/Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... A deep layer cyclone is expected to waver between the southern Bering Sea and Aleutians this period, which gets significantly reinforced by a large and strong cyclone early to mid next week. The 12z GFS was a slight outlier when compared to the other guidance, so didn't weight it as much as usual. Most of the grids were weighted towards the agreeable 12z Canadian, 12z ECMWF, 12z NAEFS mean, 00z ECMWF ensemble mean with many grids using an NBM starting point. This should deal with small scale issues, such as the smaller low approaching the AK Peninsula Sunday night and the position of the upcoming large and deep cyclone late in the period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The expected flow pattern leads to some confidence in multiple inches of precipitation (coastal rains, with snow at higher elevations/inland) near south-central AK, particularly late in the period as the large and deep cyclone moves in from the west. Gale to storm-force winds are expected offshore the North Slope, Kotzebue Sound, Norton Sound, the Aleutians, favored locations in southern AK, with hurricane-force winds south of the Aleutians and potentially channeling between Kodiak Island and Kenai Peninsula from Tuesday into next Wednesday. This will also include wave/swell threats. Meanwhile, a significant warming trend will be happening across western and southern Alaska through the period, with cold air harder to scour out of the North Slope and the eastern interior due to how far south the cyclone track/cold low is expected to be in the southern Bering Sea. Temperatures across western and southern Alaska should warm to well above normal. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html