Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 656 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 5 2024 - 12Z Tue Jan 9 2024 ***Conditions remain quite stormy for the Aleutians and western Alaska going into next weekend*** ...General Overview... The intense low pressure system expected to hammer the Aleutians in the short range forecast period will be undergoing a steady weakening trend by Friday as it slowly lifts northward along the western Alaska coast. Unfortunately, the break in the bad weather is short-lived as the next strong northern Pacific storm system approaches the central Aleutians on Saturday with widespread gale to storm force winds. It appears this low will be a little weaker and track more to the west compared to the short range event. An influx of moisture oriented toward the south-central Alaska coast is expected to produce copious coastal rain and mountain snow from the Alaska Peninsula to the Chugach Mountains. A potential third system lurks on the distant horizon for early next week. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z model guidance suite is in good overall synoptic scale agreement across most of the Alaska domain on Friday, with the greatest differences centered over the southern Gulf regarding the placement of a relatively weak low pressure system. With the intense low approaching the Aleutians on Saturday, the 12Z GFS is near the consensus of the guidance, whereas the UKMET/ECMWF is southeast and the CMC northwest. The guidance maintains a near 960mb low across the central Bering on Sunday with a weakening trend after that. However, model spread becomes substantial with the third system by next Tuesday, with the GFS showing a much stronger storm compared to the CMC/ECMWF, and big timing differences as well. The use of the ensemble means accounted for about 40-50% of the blend going into early next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The main weather hazard during this time period will be episodes of high winds across both the Arctic Coast/North Slope region and also for the Aleutians where a strong pressure gradient will be in place on Thursday and into early Friday, and again for the Aleutians on Saturday as the next storm moves in. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely for these areas, and this will likely result in some instances of coastal flooding for portions of southwestern mainland Alaska and the Aleutians. Ground blizzard conditions are expected for much of the Arctic Coast region mid-late week. In terms of precipitation, very heavy mountain snow is expected from the Kenai Peninsula to the Chugach Mountains, and a cold rain near the coast as a plume of Pacific moisture is advected northward, but most of the Interior and the North Slope should have little in the way of additional snow. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html