Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 659 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 24 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z/18Z model guidance suite maintains excellent agreement with the anomalous upper level closed high over the northern Bering for the weekend and the broad upper trough over western Canada. However, the guidance still differs on placement of multiple low pressure systems over the North Pacific as early as Saturday, with the CMC west of the consensus with the upper low that drifts west through Sunday, and this model is also considerably stronger with the trough axis over the mainland evolving into a closed low by Monday morning, which is not supported by the GFS/ECMWF. Looking ahead to the middle of next week, the CMC is slower to break down the western Bering Sea ridge, and the ECMWF/GFS indicate a reinforcing arctic trough settling in across the northern half of the mainland, whereas the CMC supports more zonal flow aloft. The fronts/pressures forecast was primarily based primarily on a GFS/ECMWF compromise with some CMC/UKMET this weekend, and then roughly equal proportions of the GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/ECENS for early-mid next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A return to frigid temperatures is likely by the weekend, with the brunt of the coldest air likely over the eastern Interior. Overnight lows in the -20s and -30s are expected, and perhaps even colder in the normally colder sheltered valleys. Although most of the state should remain dry, moderate to locally heavy snow is likely from the Kenai Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle region for the 22nd and 23rd as Pacific moisture is advected inland. With a strong pressure gradient in place from the strong high over the mainland to the low pressure over the Gulf, some strong gap winds can be expected along portions of the south-central coast and the Panhandle for this weekend. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html