Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 648 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 25 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The 12Z/18Z model guidance suite maintains excellent agreement with the anomalous upper level closed high over the northern Bering for the weekend into Monday, and reasonably good agreement with the mainland Alaska trough axis. The guidance has come into better agreement on the placement of multiple low pressure systems over the North Pacific, with the CMC now fitting the consensus better compared to yesterday, although it is slightly to the east of the GFS/ECMWF with the surface low just south of the Kenai Peninsula by Tuesday morning. For the arctic trough building in towards the middle of the week, the CMC is stronger with this feature overall, and the GFS is slower with the arrival of the trough compared to a slightly faster ECMWF. The UKMET strayed the most from consensus across the North Pacific, so the fronts/pressures forecast was primarily based primarily on a GFS/ECMWF/CMC compromise through Monday, and then roughly equal proportions of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC/GEFS/ECENS for mid next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A return to frigid temperatures is likely by the weekend, with the brunt of the coldest air likely over the eastern Interior and in particular, the Yukon Flats. Overnight lows in the -20s and -30s are expected, and perhaps even colder in the normally colder sheltered valleys. Although most of the state should remain dry, moderate to locally heavy snow is likely from the Kenai Peninsula to the St. Elias Mountains for the 22nd to the 24th as Pacific moisture is advected inland. With a strong pressure gradient in place from the strong high over the mainland to the low pressure over the Gulf, some strong gap winds can be expected along portions of the south-central coast and the Panhandle for this weekend. Strong northerly winds gusting to 50 mph are also expected for the western Alaska Peninsula and adjacent portions of the eastern Aleutians. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html