Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 501 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Feb 08 2024 ...Bitterly cold temperature focus to linger over the eastern Interior this weekend... ...Overview... It remains the case thta deep upper troughing and embedded closed low over Alaska should shift east into northwest Canada by the weekend as upper ridging builds in upstream and shifts over the Mainland. This should help moderate bitterly cold temperatures across the state as well as usher in a drier overall pattern for much of the Interior. A deep upper low will affect much of the Aleutians into the weekend with increased precipitation and gusty winds before rotating north/westward and becoming absorbed into an additional upper low dropping down from the Kamchatka Peninsula. Multiple streams of energy rotating around the base of this broad trough will keep conditions quite unsettled across the Aleutians and more moderately from Southwest Alaska through the Alaska Peninsula and downstream into the southern to Southeast Alaskan coastal tier. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian solutions seem reasonably clustered for Sunday/Monday at medium to larger scales. A favored composite tends to mitigate individual system variances consistent with uncertainty. This strategy maintains good WPC product continuity for this period in a pattern with near average overall predictability. Prefer to gravitate to still compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means into longer time frames Tuesday-next Thursday amid growing forecast spread and run to run continuity issues. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A deep surface low near the Aleutians into Saturday should support increasing precipitation from west to east as the cold front shifts through the Aleutians. There is also likely to be a period of gusty high winds given the strong pressure gradient present. Additional surface lows into early next week will continue to keep unsettled conditions across the Aleutians and farther east towards Southwestern Alaska and AKpen with wrapping flow, then downstream for the southern to Southeast Alaska. This will be fueled by general moist southerly flow as system energies/triple point lows split underneath the state into the northern Gulf of Alaska, with periodic activity with weakened systems working across the Gulf of Alaska toward the Southeast. Well below normal temperatures lingering into the weekend may still include some locally colder than -50F values over colder spots of the eastern Interior, but there should be an overall easing of the current Mainland frigid pattern as mean upper ridging builds over the state. By next Monday-Tuesday, the greatest positive anomalies should be across western Alaska and the North Slope along with parts of Southwest Alaska, where daytime highs could be 10-20+ degrees above normal, a strong contrast to conditions currently. Southeast Alaska looks to stay near or below normal most of the forecast period. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html